The forex markets are generally staying in consolidative, directionless trading today. Euro weakens mildly against dollar and yen but is still stuck in familiar range. Meanwhile, Sterling is paring some of this week’s loss. And commodity currencies are staying in range too. The other markets, European indices are broadly higher with FTSE and CAD having more than 2% gain at the time of writing while DAX is up 1.8%. US futures also point to higher open. Gold is still struggling around 1070 while crude oil is recovery back above 36.5. The economic calendar is rather heavy today but triggers little reactions so far.
Economic data released from US were rather uninspirational. Durable goods orders was flat in November versus expectation of -0.7% fall. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.1%, though, versus expectation of 0.0%. Personal income rose more than expected by 0.3% while spending met expectation of rose 0.3% in November. Headline PCE rose to 0.4% yoy while core PCE was unchanged at 1.3% yoy. From Canada GDP was flat mom in October versus expectation of 0.3% mom. Retail sales rose 0.1% while ex-autos sales rose 0.0%, well below consensus.
Released earlier today, UK Q3 GDP growth was revised down to 0.4% qoq in Q3 versus expectation of 0.5% qoq. Current account deficit was unchanged at GBP -17.5b. Index of services rose 0.5% 3mo3m in October. Swiss KOF leading indicator dropped to 96.6. in December. New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -779m in November.
Happy holidays to our readers! We’ll be back on Dec 28.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.75; (P) 121.02; (R1) 121.34; More…
The consolidation pattern from 123.74 is still in progress. Deeper fall could be seen to 120.33. But still, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 118.05 to 123.74 at 120.22 to contain downside and bring rebound. At this point, we’d slightly favor the case for rise from 116.13 to extend towards 125.27/85 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, the consolidation pattern from 125.85 medium term top is still in progress. In case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support between 115.55 and 38.2% retracement of 101.08 to 125.85 at 116.38 to contain downside. An eventual break of 125.85 is still anticipated at a later stage.
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Nov | -779M | -812M | -963M | -905M |
| 08:00 | CHF | KOF Leading Indicator Dec | 96.6 | 98.9 | 97.9 | |
| 09:30 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q3 F | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| 09:30 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q3 | -17.5B | -21.3B | -16.8B0 | -17.5B |
| 09:30 | GBP | Index of Services 3M/3M Oct | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Nov P | 0.00% | -0.70% | 2.90% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Durables Ex Transportation Nov P | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.50% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Personal Income Nov | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Nov | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Deflator M/M Nov | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Deflator Y/Y Nov | 0.40% | 0.20% | ||
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Core M/M Nov | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Core Y/Y Nov | 1.30% | 1.30% | ||
| 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Oct | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.50% | |
| 13:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.50% | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| 13:30 | CAD | Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Oct | 0.00% | 0.40% | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| 15:00 | USD | New Home Sales Nov | 500K | 495K | ||
| 15:00 | USD | U. of Michigan Confidence Dec F | 91.8 | 91.8 | ||
| 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 4.8M |
Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box
Mid-Day Report: Consolidative Buying and selling Continues in Foreign exchange Markets
No comments:
Post a Comment